The Value Relevance of Sentiment

It is generally accepted that excessive exuberance or gloom in investor sentiment contributes to booms and crashes in share prices. However, views differ on the merits of active policy intervention due to gaps in our understanding of the transmission mechanism. To fill this gap we apply a fully ex ante valuation model in which an index of investor sentiment is included along with earnings and growth fundamentals to explain value. The outcome is a precise indication of the value relevance of sentiment. We employ the investor sentiment indicator proposed by Baker and Wurgler (2007). Valuation, and implied permanent growth, based on the inclusion of standard fundamentals is compared with that obtained when sentiment is added. The resulting ratio produces an index of ’the valuation effects of sentiment’ that can be assessed with statistical significance. Out-of-sample fit is also examined. For the Dow index the valuation effects of sentiment are significant and as large as 40% of market value at the peak of the ’dot-com’ bubble. The index we propose identifies conditions, detectable in advance and under the control of policy makers, that are conducive to the creation of asset bubbles. It is easy to construct, timely, robust and can be used improve our understanding of what leads to bubbles and crashes and to inform policy.Bubbles, fundamental valuation, sentiment, early warning indicators

Tracking moving objects in surveillance video

The thesis looks at approaches to the detection and tracking of potential objects of interest in surveillance video. The aim was to investigate and develop methods that might be suitable for eventual application through embedded software, running on a fixed-point processor, in analytics capable cameras. The work considers common approaches to object detection and representation, seeking out those that offer the necessary computational economy and the potential to be able to cope with constraints such as low frame rate due to possible limited processor time, or weak chromatic content that can occur in some typical surveillance contexts. The aim is for probabilistic tracking of objects rather than simple concatenation of frame by frame detections. This involves using recursive Bayesian estimation. The particle filter is a technique for implementing such a recursion and so it is examined in the context of both single target and combined multi-target tracking. A detailed examination of the operation of the single target tracking particle filter shows that objects can be tracked successfully using a relatively simple structured grey-scale histogram representation. It is shown that basic components of the particle filter can be simplified without loss in tracking quality. An analysis brings out the relationships between commonly used target representation distance measures and shows that in the context of the particle filter there is little to choose between them. With the correct choice of parameters, the simplest and computationally economic distance measure performs well. The work shows how to make that correct choice. Similarly, it is shown that a simple measurement likelihood function can be used in place of the more ubiquitous Gaussian. The important step of target state estimation is examined. The standard weighted mean approach is rejected, a recently proposed maximum a posteriori approach is shown to be not suitable in the context of the work, and a practical alternative is developed. Two methods are presented for tracker initialization. One of them is a simplification of an existing published method, the other is a novel approach. The aim is to detect trackable objects as they enter the scene, extract trackable features, then actively follow those features through subsequent frames. The multi-target tracking problem is then posed as one of management of multiple independent trackers

The Neural Representation of Unexpected Uncertainty during Value-Based Decision Making

Uncertainty is an inherent property of the environment and a central feature of models of decision-making and learning. Theoretical propositions suggest that one form, unexpected uncertainty, may be used to rapidly adapt to changes in the environment, while being influenced by two other forms: risk and estimation uncertainty. While previous studies have reported neural representations of estimation uncertainty and risk, relatively little is known about unexpected uncertainty. Here, participants performed a decision-making task while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), which, in combination with a Bayesian model-based analysis, enabled us to separately examine each form of uncertainty examined. We found representations of unexpected uncertainty in multiple cortical areas, as well as the noradrenergic brainstem nucleus locus coeruleus. Other unique cortical regions were found to encode risk, estimation uncertainty, and learning rate. Collectively, these findings support theoretical models in which several formally separable uncertainty computations determine the speed of learning

Neural Mechanisms Underlying Human Consensus Decision-Making

Consensus building in a group is a hallmark of animal societies, yet little is known about its underlying computational and neural mechanisms. Here, we applied a computational framework to behavioral and fMRI data from human participants performing a consensus decision-making task with up to five other participants. We found that participants reached consensus decisions through integrating their own preferences with information about the majority group members’ prior choices, as well as inferences about how much each option was stuck to by the other people. These distinct decision variables were separately encoded in distinct brain areas—the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, posterior superior temporal sulcus/temporoparietal junction, and intraparietal sulcus—and were integrated in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex. Our findings provide support for a theoretical account in which collective decisions are made through integrating multiple types of inference about oneself, others, and environments, processed in distinct brain modules

Wind\u27s Effect on Residential Structures

The primary intent of this MQP was to identify methods and approaches to affordably and effectively improve residential home design and construction. From the information our team gathered through research, interviews, and experimentation, we designed an affordable structure capable of withstanding 110 mph wind gusts. Ultimately, we hope our design will inspire change in the current residential code by serving as a template for extreme wind design and protect homes and homeowners everywhere from unnecessary damage and destruction

Association between rheumatoid arthritis disease activity, progression of functional limitation and long-term risk of orthopaedic surgery : Combined analysis of two prospective cohorts supports EULAR treat to target DAS thresholds

Objectives: To examine the association between disease activity in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA), functional limitation and long-term orthopaedic episodes. Methods: Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) disability scores were collected from two longitudinal early RA inception cohorts in routine care; Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Study and Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Network from 1986 to 2012. The incidence of major and intermediate orthopaedic surgical episodes over 25 years was collected from national data sets. Disease activity was categorised by mean disease activity score (DAS28) annually between years 1 and 5; remission (RDAS≤2.6), low (LDAS>2.6-3.2), low-moderate (LMDAS≥3.2-4.19), high-moderate (HMDAS 4.2-5.1) and high (HDAS>5.1). Results: Data from 2045 patients were analysed. Patients in RDAS showed no HAQ progression over 5 years, whereas there was a significant relationship between rising DAS28 category and HAQ at 1 year, and the rate of HAQ progression between years 1 and 5. During 27 986 person-years follow-up, 392 intermediate and 591 major surgeries were observed. Compared with the RDAS category, there was a significantly increased cumulative incidence of intermediate surgery in HDAS (OR 2.59 CI 1.49 to 4.52) and HMDAS (OR 1.8 CI 1.05 to 3.11) categories, and for major surgery in HDAS (OR 2.48 CI 1.5 to 4.11), HMDAS (OR 2.16 CI 1.32 to 3.52) and LMDAS (OR 2.07 CI 1.28 to 3.33) categories. There was no significant difference in HAQ progression or orthopaedic episodes between RDAS and LDAS categories. Conclusions: There is an association between disease activity and both poor function and long-term orthopaedic episodes. This illustrates the far from benign consequences of persistent moderate disease activity, and supports European League Against Rheumatism treat to target recommendations to secure low disease activity or remission in all patients.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

The Vehicle, Fall 1980

Vol. 22, No. 1 Table of Contents UntitledSusan Mehlpage 4 MitchJohn Stockmanpage 5 HallwayAndy Leszczynskipage 6 At The MoviesElise Hempelpage 8 HaikuAngie Patrickpage 8 On MagnoliasThersa Kennypage 9 NeighborJohn Stockmanpage 10 WetCathy Georgepage 10 HaikuThersa Kennypage 10 The Speed QueenCarolyn Perrypage 11 A ThoughtThersa Kennypage 14 The Stone Belongs to the LakeRobert Schumacherpage 15 Driving South of WinnipegJerry McAnultypage 16 Travels with the ExecutionerPeter Lindemanpage 17 NightwingLaura Muellerpage 18 Thoughts of an Uninterested StudentDru Seftonpage 19 Rainbird\u27s ManMary McDanielpage 20 EffortlessKevin Stottpage 25 Where the Waves SoundTheresa Whitesidepage 26 \u2745Ray Wallacepage 28 Epigram #1P. James Kruegerpage 28 UntitledSusan Mehlpage 29 RerunsAngie Patrickpage 30 SunsetGloria Rhoadspage 34 Return of the NativeRay Wallacepage 35 The GuitarJoanne Dunnepage 35 In Grandmother\u27s BedroomElise Hempelpage 36 Cindy Poem No. 3John Stockmanpage 36 Dust in the DarkLaura Muellerpage 37 Suspension BridgeLaura Henrypage 39 WavesLeslie Garnerpage 39 Oyama: a Setting and a GirlJerry McAnultypage 40 the middle of the nightKevin Stottpage 41 Old State RoadLaura Henrypage 43 Dairy QueenJohn Stockmanpage 43 Art CoverDennis Wunsch Pen and ink drawingRose Huberpage 3 PhotographIrene Brownpage 7 PhotographIrene Brownpage 27 PhotographIrene Brownpage 42 Pen and ink drawingRose Huberpage 44https://thekeep.eiu.edu/vehicle/1036/thumbnail.jp

Learning spaces:built, natural and digital considerations for learning and learners

Learning spaces: Built, natural and digital considerations for learning and learner